[This specifically traces Sauron’s arc; I’m working on one for Galadriel’s arc.]
Halbrand’s exchange with Diarmid on the ship foreshadows his internal conflict and demonstrates his moral consciousness. Diarmid asks “What haunts you so?”
This question is also the Grail Question, an element in the legend of the Fisher King, to which the talisman image of the Kingfisher alludes, and which Halbrand’s arc substantially mirrors. Sauron’s arc of repentance (as Halbrand) in the first season is bookended by two Grail Questions, this being the first. For further discussion, see here.
Halbrand stirs with genuine fear when he senses the presence of the The Worm. Halbrand is in Ulmo’s realm, at the mercy of Ulmo and more broadly at the mercy of the Valar. (Even Melkor feared the realm of Ulmo, which he could not control.) When Halbrand admits to having done evil, Diarmid responds “All of us have done things that we care not to admit… Find forgiveness. You are alive because you have chosen good.”
In context of what has transpired in the show, and of Diarmid’s limited knowledge of his past, Halbrand likely interprets “chosen good” as reference to his choice to follow Diarmid rather than to pursue his vengeance on Adar. Anxious and conflicted, he asks “But what of tomorrow?” His question reveals his own doubt about his ability to fight the Darkness within, to reconcile his addiction to Power. Diarmid says “You have to choose it again. And the next day. And the next. Until it becomes a part of your nature.” Diarmid’s words foreshadow Halbrand’s imminent arc into Light and allude to his addiction to Power, echoing advice for recovery: take it one day at a time.
Once he chooses to follow the alternative path offered by Diarmid, Halbrand’s actions are overtly neutral. While he warns him to grab hold of something, Halbrand does not save Diarmid when The Worm attacks, which could been seen as evil. This is a moment of ambiguity for which the chiastic structure offers a cipher: his arc is moving away from evil, and although he is a long way from the Light, arcing away from Darkness more strongly indicates a neutral Maia who is no longer meddling in the affairs of Middle-earth. He neither helps nor harms. (See ‘Parallels With Gollum’ below for additional support of this take.) He does, however, take the talisman, which underscores its symbolic importance to him, as well as his internal moral ambivalence.
Halbrand finds himself submerged among the wreckage, facing The Worm. In The Silmarillion, Tolkien writes:
It is said by the Eldar that in water there lives yet the echo of the Music of the Ainur more than in any substance that is in this Earth
As a Maia, Sauron is one of the Ainur himself and must sense the echo of the Music. As Ulmo throws him into the sea, his submersion is a reminder of the might of the Valar as as much as it is a reminder of his part in the Music, of his origin as Mairon, who took part in Harmony and Creation with the Valar and Eru himself.
Water holds great symbolic meaning in literature, representing divine will, renewal or rebirth, and a boundary of transformation. Water symbolizes these themes in many ancient mythological texts, Beowulf and the Epic of Gilgamesh being two examples that also influenced Tolkien, as well as in ROP.
Halbrand faces The Worm
Miriél faces The Worm
In ROP the sea is a clear symbol of divine Will. Halbrand faces The Worm, in nearly identical framing as we see later in Miriél’s trial by sea. In Miriél’s trial, to face The Worm is to face the judgment of the Valar. The Worm (whether Ulmo himself or at his command) wrecks Halbrand’s ship, yet spares him, a clear intervention by (at least) one of the most powerful Valar. Ulmo is known for direct intervention in the affairs of Arda; for example when he guides Tuor to Voronwë and the hidden city of Gondolin.
“… in the armour of Fate (as the Children of Earth name it) there is ever a rift, and in the walls of Doom a breach, until the full-making, which ye call the End. So shall it be while I endure, a secret voice that gainsayeth, and a light where darkness was decreed. Therefore, though in the days of this darkness I seem to oppose the will of my brethren, the lords of the West, that is my part among them, to which I was appointed ere the making of the World.” — Ulmo to Tuor, Unfinished Tales
And thus it was by the power of Ulmo that even under the darkness of Melkor life coursed still through many secret lodes, and the Earth did not die; and to all who were lost in that darkness or wandered far from the light of the Valar, the ear of Ulmo was ever open; nor has he ever forsaken Middle-earth, and whatsoever may since have befallen of ruin or of change he has not ceased to take thought for it, and will not until the end of days. —The Beginning of Days, Quenta Silmarillion
Ulmo’s will, revealed through his intervention, is not to aid or coerce Sauron, but to disrupt Sauron’s plan, creating the opportunity for him to choose Light, to choose other than his fate. In the Epic of Gilgamesh the gods wield water as an instrument of divine intervention, and in Beowulf, water serves as a medium through which Fate (or Wyrd) and the will of God are expressed. This theme is echoed in the Númenorean belief that “the sea is always right.”
In ROP, the sea also symbolizes renewal, serving as a liminal space that enables symbolic rebirth for Sauron and Galadriel: the chance to begin anew. As Elendil says “The watery part of this world has a way of healing even the deepest wounds.” Similarly the flood in the Epic of Gilgalmesh purges pride and hubris to allow renewal, and in Beowulf, water becomes a liminal space where Beowulf metaphorically dies and is reborn as a greater hero.
Finally, the sea symbolizes a boundary of transformation - a threshold that Sauron and Galadriel cross to embark on their journeys of transformation and self-realization. Beowulf’s descent into the Mere to confront Grendel’s mother signifies his crossing into a liminal space where he emerges transformed. Gilgamesh must cross the Waters of Death to meet Utnapishtim, in his quest for knowledge and self-realization. In ROP, the sea as a boundary of transformation also serves as the threshold for the hero journeys of both Sauron and Galadriel.
The Worm spares Halbrand
The Worm spares Galadriel
We next see Halbrand on the raft, gazing intently at the talisman. On one hand, Ulmo has wrecked his ship, preventing him from getting to Valinor (if that was in fact Halbrand’s aim) or at least foiling his new path; on the other, Ulmo has intentionally spared his life. Whether Halbrand had intended to make his way to Valinor, or to simply find a different path, this new path has failed, and likely by divine Will. As he floats adrift on the raft, gazing at the talisman, he must be wondering why Ulmo would foil his plan but spare his life.
Sauron has failed to heal Middle-earth. He has been betrayed and defeated by Adar. He accepts Diarmid’s offer of a new path, a tentative step away from Darkness. By dashing Halbrand’s plan at a vulnerable moment, Ulmo creates a vacuum of despair. In this moment of existential questioning, just when the glimmer of hope offered by Diarmid is fading, he hears Galadriel’s voice: “Over here!”
When she reaches the raft, the survivors are divided, every one of them taking a side—all except Halbrand, who is notably neutral, overtly holding up his hands in abstention. His first words to Galadriel “The tides of fate are flowing. Yours may be heading in or out” describe both his own moral ambivalence and the existential crossroads at which they both find themselves.
Sauron would know better than to ignore the divine providence of having been spared, but he does not yet understand the intent behind Ulmo’s intervention. He knows only that the Vala of whose ear was ‘ever open … to all who were lost in that darkness or wandered far from the light of the Valar’ **has shipwrecked him and put him in the path of Galadriel.